“Interesting how the experts have turned completely bearish, while formerly bearish (Jesse?) seem to be looking for the upside.” -The Best Minimum Wage Job a Middle Aged Guy Ever Had
I don’t have a clue when the economy will turn around. I don’t know when the real estate, commodities market or stock market will find a bottom. I don’t pretend to know if inflation or deflation is a bigger risk to the economy over the coming 12 months.
What I DO know is that the majority is usually wrong (check out Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Wiley Investment Classics)
Right now the majority expects a stock market crash over the coming 12 months (Yale School of Management). The majority thinks there will be no inflation over the next 30 years (as evidenced by long treasuries). The majority of consumers have never been more pessimistic about the prospects for the economy (U. of Mich. poll).
As an investor, business owner and an informed and concerned citizen, I have to assume that these beliefs are wrong. So I am making the following assumptions in 2009: the stock market will not crash (again) this year; inflation is more likely than deflation over the next few years; and the economy will be better than most currently expect.
So, yes, Duncan, I’m optimistic – at least more than most. But not for any other reason than I’m in the business of being a contrarian.
“Half of the people can be part right all of the time,
Some of the people can be all right part of the time,
But all of the people can’t be all right all of the time.
I think Abraham Lincoln said that.
‘I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours.’
I said that.” -Bob Dylan
Going Radical in 2009
January 7, 2009
I’ve been doing some thinking about “My Back Pages” over the past few weeks. When I first started the blog almost four years ago I intended to use it as my personal op-ed page with posts like these:
“Location, Location… Margin of Safety?”
But last year, the blog started to morph into something else. I started posting more news items with subtle commentary, editorial cartoons (which I’m a huge fan of) and charts with little discussion of the issue at hand.
What I’ve realized is, while I’m a big fan of sites like The Big Picture, Calculated Risk, Clusterstock and ChartWatchers I don’t really want to compete with them. I don’t have the time, ability or desire to do so.
The value I can provide is probably more along the lines of a Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up or a Best Minimum Wage Job a Middle Aged Guy Ever Had (two of my favorite blogs): more editorial and less news. More thinking; less recycling of ideas. After all, that’s what the blog was created to do.
As for all that other stuff, I’ve found Twitter to be a great forum. If you’re into the news posts, cartoons and charts, you can follow me here: @jessefelder
As for the blog, expect a truly radical change for “My Back Pages” in 2009:
“Ah, but I was so much older then,
I’m younger than that now…“
LIV
"Papa O’Wily"
January 3, 2009
For Bernie Madoff & Co. (to the tune of “Baba O’Riley”):
Out here in the fields
I beguile for my meals
I get my jack without misgiving
I won’t even fight
To prove I’m light
I won’t plead to be forgivenDon’t cry
Don’t raise your eye
It’s only hedge fund wastelandBooty, take my hand
Travel south crossland
Put out the fire
Don’t look past my shoulder
The exodus is here
The desperate ones are near
Let’s get outta here
Before it gets much colderHedge fund wasteland
Its only hedge fund wasteland
Hedge fund wasteland
Oh, oh
Hedge fund wasteland
They’re all wasted!
