I don’t have a clue when the economy will turn around. I don’t know when the real estate, commodities market or stock market will find a bottom. I don’t pretend to know if inflation or deflation is a bigger risk to the economy over the coming 12 months.

What I DO know is that the majority is usually wrong (check out Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Wiley Investment Classics)).

Right now the majority expects a stock market crash over the coming 12 months (Yale School of Management). The majority thinks there will be no inflation over the next 30 years (as evidenced by long treasuries). The majority of consumers have never been more pessimistic about the prospects for the economy (U. of Mich. poll).

As an investor, business owner and an informed and concerned citizen, I have to assume that these beliefs are wrong. So I am making the following assumptions in 2009: the stock market will not crash (again) this year; inflation is more likely than deflation over the next few years; and the economy will be better than most currently expect.

So, yes, Duncan, I’m optimistic – at least more than most. But not for any other reason than I’m in the business of being a contrarian.

“Half of the people can be part right all of the time,
Some of the people can be all right part of the time,
But all of the people can’t be all right all of the time.
I think Abraham Lincoln said that.
‘I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours.’
I said that.” -Bob Dylan

(Click for video)

“A-Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall”

“Captain Crunch”

“Location, Location… Margin of Safety?”

But last year, the blog started to morph into something else. I started posting more news items with subtle commentary, editorial cartoons (which I’m a huge fan of) and charts with little discussion of the issue at hand.

What I’ve realized is, while I’m a big fan of sites like The Big Picture, Calculated Risk, Clusterstock and ChartWatchers I don’t really want to compete with them. I don’t have the time, ability or desire to do so.

The value I can provide is probably more along the lines of a Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up or a Best Minimum Wage Job a Middle Aged Guy Ever Had (two of my favorite blogs): more editorial and less news. More thinking; less recycling of ideas. After all, that’s what the blog was created to do.

As for all that other stuff, I’ve found Twitter to be a great forum. If you’re into the news posts, cartoons and charts, you can follow me here: @jessefelder

As for the blog, expect a truly radical change for “My Back Pages” in 2009:

“Ah, but I was so much older then,
I’m younger than that now…“
LIV

Out here in the fields
I beguile for my meals
I get my jack without misgiving
I won’t even fight
To prove I’m light
I won’t plead to be forgiven

Don’t cry
Don’t raise your eye
It’s only hedge fund wasteland

Booty, take my hand
Travel south crossland
Put out the fire
Don’t look past my shoulder
The exodus is here
The desperate ones are near
Let’s get outta here
Before it gets much colder

Hedge fund wasteland
Its only hedge fund wasteland
Hedge fund wasteland
Oh, oh
Hedge fund wasteland
They’re all wasted!

Baba ORiley – The Who

Source:
EditorialCartoonists.com

Judging by the TED Spread, the credit markets like Uncle Ben’s latest recipe

Volatility (as measured by the $VIX) is Slip Sliding Away along with yields.

Fed Throws the Dollar to the Wolves Resulting in the Biggest 6-Day Decline Ever

Maybe it’s just me but given the sad state of the economy you’d think people would go the extra mile to earn business. I’m finding the exact opposite. It’s a sort of depressed acquiescence with a dash of incompetence.

Why The ‘Jobs Premium’ Is Worth Billions ($AAPL)

It’s Gonna Be A White Christmas – Even In Vegas

Strange Hangover Cures From Around the World

Sign of the times? Stolen Christmas trees

30-year mortgage lowest in 37 years of Freddie Mac survey

Typo In Proposition 8 Defines Marriage As Between ‘One Man And One Wolfman’

Experts say Oliver Twist didn’t need any more

slip sliding away

The Philadelphia Bank Index tracks the stock performance of the twenty-or-so (with all the failures/emergency mergers it’s tough to really keep close count) largest banks in the country. It has lead the stockmarket’s selloff with about a 50% decline in 2008.

It has rallied since the dramatic selloff late last month but is running into some stiff resistance (45-50) currently. Whether it can manage to surmount it out or not will tell us much about the strength of the current rally.

Source:
Editorial Cartoon
Mike Keefe
Denver Post
December 19, 2008